Sunday, February 2, 2025

Best Guess

Remembering that today was February 2, I checked the Groundhog report when I got up this morning, but as so often happens, Google's use of AI to generate answers proved inaccurate and confusing. "There will be six more weeks of winter," it proclaimed confidently, "because the groundhog did not see his shadow." (The highlighting was theirs.) 

I scratched my chin and investigated further. Turns out, Punxsutawney Phil did indeed see his shadow (highlighting mine), and so tradition has it that there will be six more weeks of winter. I also discovered that in the 135 years that we have turned to the groundhog on this day, he has seen his shadow 85% of the time, and his rate of accuracy is only about 35%.

The experience reminded me of an anecdote my nephew tells about the time one of the 8th graders he was working with was convinced that Abraham Lincoln owned slaves. To prove her assertion, she Googled the question and then flipped her iPad around to show him the AI-generated reply that, yes, Lincoln was a slave owner.

"Did you check the sources for that answer?" he asked.

"No!" she told him. "That's too much work!"

To the search engine's credit, I could not replicate either of those inaccuracies when I repeated both queries a moment ago, so there is some system at work within the system to right its wrongs. 

And, as galling as AI can be, it's gotta be more accurate than the groundhog.

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